UC Irvine

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	119.0
Current RPI:	119
Expected SOS:	99
Current SOS:	99
Current Record:	16-17
Expected Record:	16-17
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-2
Current OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC RPI:	149
Expected OOC SOS:	7

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-17	119.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Irvine.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	65-54	L	0%
11-12	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	69-83	W	100%
11-17	Kansas St. (53.0)	B12	A	71-49	L	0%
11-19	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	99-78	L	0%
11-23	Rider (69.0)	MAAC	N	82-90	L	0%
11-24	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	N	77-71	W	100%
11-26	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	87-63	L	0%
12-2	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	65-76	L	0%
12-6	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	62-59	L	0%
12-9	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	73-59	L	0%
12-16	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	73-66	L	0%
12-19	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	86-68	L	0%
12-21	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	N	59-67	W	100%
12-28	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	60-65	L	0%
1-4	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	64-53	L	0%
1-6	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	86-73	W	100%
1-11	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	64-67	L	0%
1-13	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	54-71	W	100%
1-18	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	80-73	W	100%
1-20	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	70-58	L	0%
1-24	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	79-40	W	100%
1-31	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	68-75	W	100%
2-3	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	58-63	W	100%
2-7	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	77-56	W	100%
2-10	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	52-62	W	100%
2-15	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	61-62	L	0%
2-17	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	58-75	W	100%
2-22	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	69-49	W	100%
2-24	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	57-66	W	100%
3-3	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	84-90	L	0%
3-8	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	N	68-67	W	100%
3-9	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	N	58-61	W	100%
3-10	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	N	55-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Irvine's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Irvine's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Irvine.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Irvine	BW	26.56	26.56	52.83	52.83	1.50	1.50
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	5.50	5.50	61.54	61.54	1.27	1.27
UC Santa Barbara	BW	5.46	5.46	74.07	74.07	2.63	2.63
Hawaii	BW	5.39	5.39	56.00	56.00	0.65	0.65
UC Davis	BW	4.07	4.07	64.29	64.29	1.16	1.16
Cal Poly	BW	4.01	4.01	25.93	25.93	-1.93	-1.93
Long Beach St.	BW	4.00	4.00	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
UC Riverside	BW	3.99	3.99	25.93	25.93	-1.92	-1.92
Cal St. Northridge	BW	3.93	3.93	15.38	15.38	-2.72	-2.72
Montana	BSky	1.77	1.77	76.67	76.67	0.95	0.95
Nevada	MWC	1.72	1.72	78.79	78.79	0.99	0.99
Idaho	BSky	1.66	1.66	71.43	71.43	0.71	0.71
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.66	1.66	13.79	13.79	-1.20	-1.20
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.62	1.62	84.38	84.38	1.11	1.11
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.59	1.59	82.76	82.76	1.04	1.04
Arizona St.	P12	1.59	1.59	63.33	63.33	0.42	0.42
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.57	1.57	79.31	79.31	0.92	0.92
Denver	Sum	1.57	1.57	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	1.57	1.57	41.38	41.38	-0.27	-0.27
Kansas St.	B12	1.56	1.56	65.62	65.62	0.49	0.49
Utah St.	MWC	1.56	1.56	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
UCLA	P12	1.54	1.54	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
Rider	MAAC	1.52	1.52	70.00	70.00	0.61	0.61
Utah Valley	WAC	0.44	0.44	65.52	65.52	0.14	0.14
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.41	0.41	16.67	16.67	-0.27	-0.27
California	P12	0.36	0.36	25.81	25.81	-0.17	-0.17
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.30	0.30	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.30	0.30	16.13	16.13	-0.20	-0.20
Stanford	P12	0.27	0.27	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.27	0.27	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.26	0.26	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	36.67	36.67	-0.07	-0.07
USC	P12	0.25	0.25	67.65	67.65	0.09	0.09
Pacific	WCC	0.25	0.25	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Seattle	WAC	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.23	0.23	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.21	0.21	73.33	73.33	0.10	0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.21	0.21	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.18	0.18	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
UMKC	WAC	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	10.34	10.34	-0.11	-0.11
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	3.33	3.33	-0.12	-0.12
Georgia	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00